The fight for 2012: The Republicans

A group of conservatives (most, formerly of the Mike Huckabee camp) have sent a public petition to John McCain urging him not to select Mitt Romney as his running mate. For the record, Huckabee has claimed no connection whatsoever to this brazen gambit at wringing John McCain's arm, a tactic the sometimes irascible Arizonan probably does not appreciate.

While the Democrats are fighting it out over whom will be their '08 nominee, it appears some Republicans have decided to start duking it out for the 2012 race right now. The battle lines are being drawn by Huckabee supporters who have grown fearful of a photo op Romney and McCain shared recently. It is no secret that Huckabee wants the VP job, why else would he have doggedly continued to campaign for weeks after it was clear to all the universe that the nomination was McCain's. Huckabee reckoned that if he stayed in the race long enough, he would pass Romney in the tally of Republican delegates, and therefore lay some claim to the Veep-Stakes. Huckabee accomplished his mission, and did indeed edge out Romney for 2nd place, but the former Arkansas Governor probably hurt his cause by doing so.

The political calculus is this: John McCain is the Republican nominee. But he is also a 71 year old nominee. McCain may lose in November, and, as long of a shot as he has at securing the Presidency later this year, there is zero chance McCain will be running in 2012 as anything else but as the incumbent President. Win or lose, McCain's running mate would be in prime position to be "next in line". Huckabee's supporters have rightly or wrongly surmised that the future of the Republican party rests either in Mitt Romney's or Mike Huckabee's hands.

Personally, I feel that Romney and Huckabee are both unlikely prospects. Romney and Huckabee were once moderate governors of Democratic-leaning states. Unfortunately for them, in the Republican primaries they both energetically ran to the right of McCain, which would make them unsavory to independents. The fact that they are relatively new converts to mainstream conservatism could also make them untrustworthy to some conservatives. It is true that McCain could use a Veep who would help shore up Southern support. McCain may also be calculating that between himself, ( popular in New Hampshire) , and political ally Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT), the Northeast will be in play as much as it ever will be for a Republican. A competent Southern/ Midwestern state governor or member of congress might just fit the bill. Better McCain choose a popular moderate or nationally obscure conservative than the potentially polarizing Huckabee and Romney. Of course, the cagey Arizona Maverick could make all of this talk of 2012 moot, by winning in '08.